← Store Championship (March 8th)
Water Umbra TristanTier 2
at Store Championship (March 8th)
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-1-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.2%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1285
· median 1285
· range 1285–1285
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1226
Q3 1388
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Nico | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Tristan decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
